Skenes Is Staying, Griffin Is the Future — Now the Pirates Have to Build Like It

The clearest news out of the GM Meetings in Las Vegas is what the Pittsburgh Pirates are not doing. They are not trading Paul Skenes this winter, and they are not treating Konnor Griffin as just another promising rookie. The core, in other words, is settled. Everything else Ben Cherington said this week was about whether the club will build around that core fast enough — before a lockout clock that expires on December 1 starts freezing the offseason. FanSided MLB insider Robert Murray, in reporting published November 15, put the Skenes question as plainly as it can be put: "Zero percent chance" Skenes is traded this winter. Skenes is under club control through 2029 and becomes arbitration-eligible this offseason. His 2026 was a step back by his own standards — 10-11 with a 3.82 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP in 174 1/3 innings, after sub-2.00 ERAs in each of his first two seasons and the National League Cy Young Award in 2025. His average four-seam velocity fell from 98.1 mph to 96.8 mph, and he has pointed to his World Baseball Classic preparation as a factor in the mechanical inconsistency. Cherington's public line has not wavered: "Paul will take everything that happened in 2026, and he'll learn from that. He still had a really good year. I believe he's very motivated to be even better in 2027. We know what he's capable of doing." Griffin got the other headline endorsement. In MLB.com's ranking by Jim Callis of the 2026 rookies with the highest future value, Griffin ranked first. The raw rookie line — .272/.324/.404 with six home runs and 23 steals — does not explain that ranking on its own. The context does: a forearm strain and then a finger tendon injury cost him nearly half the season, he hit .306/.361/.459 in May before the injuries interrupted him, and he finished on a tear, hitting .348/.388/.543 over his last 11 games. Pittsburgh locked him up in April to a nine-year, $140 million extension. ESPN's early 2027 power rankings, cited in the same reporting, already place the Pirates ninth in baseball. That is expectation, not accomplishment — Pittsburgh finished 82-80 in 2026, its first winning season since 2018, and still missed the postseason. The roster work Cherington outlined in Las Vegas shows where the help has to come from. In right field, the plan is to stop asking Ryan O'Hearn to be an everyday outfielder. Cherington told reporters the club wants a construction that does not require O'Hearn to spend much time on the grass — rotating at first base and designated hitter with Spencer Horwitz, with only the occasional start or late-game appearance in right. O'Hearn, on a two-year, $29 million deal, made 42 starts in right field, 36 at first base and 25 at DH in 2026, posted -5 Defensive Runs Saved in right, and had two stints on the injured list with quad strains. Oneil Cruz in center and Bryan Reynolds in left are the everyday fixtures. That leaves right field for Esmerlyn Valdez — 17 home runs in just 72 games as a rookie — but Cherington did not hand him the job, saying Valdez has "some earning to do" after a 37.6% strikeout rate and -6 Defensive Runs Saved. Jake Mangum, a positive defender who stole 23 bases, is the fallback, and Pittsburgh has not ruled out adding a right-handed corner outfielder. Behind the plate, Cherington is betting on the group he has. The Pirates carry three catchers on the 40-man roster: Rafael Flores Jr., who hit .264/.331/.527 for an .858 OPS with 11 home runs as a rookie; Henry Davis, Skenes' personal catcher for most of the past two seasons and the strongest defender of the three, who hit just .172/.272/.313; and Endy Rodríguez, who hit .267/.373/.467 for an .840 OPS but played only 47 games and had season-ending surgery on his left hip labrum in late August. "We think there's a lot of strength in all of them, and that between Flo' and Henry and Endy, there's a really good solution behind the plate," Cherington said. "We got some time to figure out exactly what that is." The same faith-with-a-warning applied to Mitch Keller. Keller, at $18.5 million, has the highest salary on the 2027 club, missed the final two months of 2026 with a right arm teres major injury, and is, in Cherington's words, recovering well. "No doubt, it's a really important part of the team going into '27," Cherington said. "We do need more out of him in 2027. I think he knows that." All of it runs into Tuesday. Brandon Lowe has until Tuesday, November 17, to accept or decline the Pirates' one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer. Lowe — .260/.331/.493 with 35 home runs, 96 RBIs and 13 Defensive Runs Saved in 150 games, the best season by a second baseman in Pirates history — is expected around the game to decline and seek a longer deal, and Murray expects him to prove too expensive for Pittsburgh to retain. Cherington remains publicly optimistic: "Obviously, we had a great experience with Brandon. I think Brandon and (wife) Madison had a great experience in Pittsburgh, and it would be a great outcome if he were a Pirate next year, and that's what we've communicated." November 17 is also the Rule 5 protection deadline, November 20 is the non-tender deadline, and the collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, with a lockout expected if there is no new deal. That is the honest picture after Las Vegas: Skenes is staying, Griffin is the future the front office is building around, and the catching, right-field and Keller questions have internal answers the Pirates believe in. None of that, by itself, turns 82-80 into a playoff team. The next two weeks — Lowe's answer first — will show whether Pittsburgh adds the outside help the core needs while the window is open.